The Matt Duchene buyout was a win-win

A year ago, the 2024 free agent class had the potential to be one of the most star-studded in a long time, especially compared to 2023’s unusually weak class that allowed players like Alex Killorn and Dmitry Orlov to receive well above standard market value. While superstars like Auston Matthews and William Nylander have signed extensions and are off the market, there are still multiple impact forwards with point-per-game upside slated to be available, namely longtime Lightning captain Steven Stamkos and Panthers breakout performer Sam Reinhart. The defense market is significantly less appealing, although Noah Hanifin will get a payday somewhere if he doesn’t extend with the Golden Knights. Still, Vegas will surely attempt to lock in the blue-liner after making a splash for him at the trade deadline.

However, Stars forward Matt Duchene is also quietly producing among the top echelon of pending UFAs. Sitting in the top six in points-per-game alongside Reinhart, Stamkos, Jake Guentzel, Patrick Kane, and Jonathan Marchessault, the 33-year-old has proved to be the best value pickup of last season’s UFA period after the Predators executed a surprising last-minute buyout of the final three seasons of his seven-year, $56M contract. The one-year, $3M pact he signed to continue his NHL career in Texas was a mid-tier contract compared to others handed out on July 1. Yet, he’s second among all 2023 UFA signees in scoring, trailing Nashville’s Gustav Nyquist.

It’s been a remarkable return to form over the past few years for a player who, shortly after signing his big payday with the Preds in free agency in 2019, looked to be on one of the worst contracts in the league. An injury-plagued and COVID-laced 2020-21 campaign was easily Duchene’s most disappointing outing in just the second year of his megadeal, missing significant time with lower-body issues and recording career-lows across the board with six goals, seven assists and 13 points while averaging 15:50 per game over 34 contests. In 2019-20, the first season of his contract, he scored only 13 goals in 66 games after crossing the 30-goal mark with Ottawa and Columbus the year prior.

The next two seasons were much more fruitful for the 2009 third-overall pick, who broke out for a career-high 43 goals the following season and put up 142 points in 149 games between 2021 and 2023 while returning to first-line minutes. The stink of the first few seasons of Duchene’s deal had soured the reputation of his contract, though, and with incoming GM Barry Trotz looking to infuse a youth movement into a squad that was stuck in wild-card territory, the team unexpectedly made him one of the top UFAs on the market the day before free agency opened.

Despite Duchene’s success with a divisional rival this year, it’s hard to criticize the decision from Nashville’s perspective. They’ve replaced his production with a cheaper UFA pickup in Nyquist, and freeing up his roster spot has allowed players like Luke Evangelista and Thomas Novak to make more of an impact. That, plus a rebounding Juuse Saros after an unusually slow start, has the Predators cooking with a 14-0-2 record in their last 16 games and the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference all but guaranteed. Much-improved depth scoring has been the Predators’ calling card this year, which wouldn’t have occurred without the Duchene buyout.

The buyout will carry some short-term pain, though. Duchene’s cap penalty is a reasonable $2.6M this season, but it jumps to $5.6M in 2024-25 and $6.6M in 2025-26. It’ll cost $1.6M from 2026 to 2029, though, almost a non-factor with the salary cap’s projected increase over that period. However, a retooled prospect pool should allow the Preds to staff some important roles with entry-level contracts over the next few years, so the buyout shouldn’t be too severe of an obstacle.

In any event, the Preds are rolling into the playoffs at an incredible pace that routinely benefits wild-card or lower-seeded teams’ chances of a first-round upset (or further, if you ask last year’s Panthers). There are no regrets in Smashville, at least not yet.

And the Stars, a potential first-round opponent for the Predators, are thrilled Duchene fell into their lap. With the 15-year veteran set to earn significant money from his buyout, he was more incentivized to settle for a bargain deal on a contender. He’s played a crucial part in Dallas, which has one of the deepest forward groups in the league, flip-flopping between first- and second-line duties. He’s posted 23 goals and 59 points in 68 games, slightly up from last season’s pace in Nashville despite averaging almost 90 fewer seconds per game. His presence has also helped revitalize Mason Marchment, who, alongside Duchene, has rebounded for a career-high 19 goals and 50 points after a tough first season in the Lone Star State last year.

He’s also straight-up Dallas’ second-leading scorer, ranking second on the team in points per game at 0.87 behind the point-per-game Jason Robertson. After the induction of rookie Logan Stankoven into the major league ranks over the past few weeks, every player in the Stars’ top nine has produced over 0.65 points per game this season. Only one player — captain Jamie Benn — has produced under 0.70.

The only two teams that have scored more per game this season than the Stars are the Avalanche and Maple Leafs. Both have been buoyed by MVP-level seasons from their star first-line centers. Their depth attacks simply don’t compare — Colorado only has one player producing over half a point per game in its bottom six (Ross Colton), while the Maple Leafs have none.

With $18.3M in projected cap space with a roster size of only 12 next season, per CapFriendly, it’s unlikely the Stars will be able to bring Duchene back without him taking a significant discount. Otherwise, Duchene is poised to be the third major beneficiary of the Predators’ decision to buy him out by landing a lucrative short-term deal on the open market this summer. This season, however, he’s helped give Dallas their best chance at a Stanley Cup since 1999’s victory.