Is This Chargers Rookie a Product Of Poor Usage or Poor Performance? – A Deep Dive

This next play looks like Johnston sets up his defender to think that he is going inside, to shift his leverage back outside, to finally shift back to inside to give the defender poor positioning to play the perfectly thrown ball by Easton Stick.

There are some flashes with Johnston, it’s just few and far between.

Coaching Did Not Help

The main thing I want to argue for Johnston is that coaching was pretty poor. He was constantly put into bad situations where you are shoving a square peg in a round hole. For example, Johnston ranks second amongst all rookies in contested catch targets. One of his biggest concerns in college is that he cannot catch contested balls. So what was he asked to do in the NFL? Exactly that. Not a great plan.

When he was finally asked to do what he was good at, which was creating yards after the catch- he was fine! Just like I said before, Johnston wasn’t asked much to take screens and short drags up the field, but when was asked, he actually performed as he should have.

Hopefully in 2024 under a new offensive scheme, there hopefully will be recognition of what his skillset actually is, and his confidence grows. Then, he can grow into the receiver that draft analysts saw he could be.

What Does he Need to Improve on if he Wants to Avoid Being Labeled a Bust?

I have spent the majority of this article praising Johnston and giving reasons for his lack of success. This is where I stop doing so. He has so many awful drops. You almost start to feel bad for the rookie, as it looks mental for plenty of the drops. That doesn’t make it magically better though, he still needs to catch the football. His drop grade amongst all receivers with at least 15 targets ranks 94th out of 154 receivers at an alarming 64.3.

This goes beyond routine catches. He struggles especially in contested catch situations. He ranks 113 out of 154 in contested catch percentage amongst all receivers with at least 15 targets. This is even worse when you see that he ranks T-21st in contested catch targets.

Beyond the contested catch issue, Johnston struggles with creating separation. He ranks 117th out of 154 in yards per route run. Beyond statistics, a tweet by Arjun Menon shows all catchable targets from week two to week 11. The few catches were created from impeccable placement and timing from Justin Herbert. The rest are tight window throws where he cannot make the play. If he were able to create separation, these throws likely would not be tight window throws.

All of this to say is that Johnston is not a perfect player. He has shown the ability to create with the ball in his hands, and the ability to at times be a playmaker. Beyond this, he needs to work on his routes consistently being sharp, his contested catches, his hand strength, his “want” to dominate his opponent, and his concentration.

Outlook For The Jim Harbaugh Led 2024 Season

The outlook for Quentin Johnston can go one of two very different ways. The more optimistic way for Johnston is that he gets promoted to wide receiver three once Mike Williams is likely cut or traded, and he gets more reps in camp. He works on his weaknesses and sharpens his strengths, as well as being used in a role he will excel in. This newfound situation with the new coaching staff turns into plays on the field, and his development is strong. A bounce-back year for the then-second-year first-round receiver.

The second way is that he is replaced. The Chargers draft a receiver within the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL draft, and Johnston is back to being the fourth receiver. He is placed into a more concise role, where he can still possibly produce; though that is asking him to do the same thing he was initially asked to do this year. Be the fourth guy and produce like a first-round receiver. Not really a realistic expectation.

So what will it be for Johnston? We will find out during the 2024 season. Hopefully, Jim Harbaugh and company see what he has shown and let him develop into what he can truly be. It’s do or die for Quentin Johnston.