College Football Odds: San Diego State vs. Boise State prediction, odds and pick – 9/30/2022

Mountain West football will be front and center on Friday night as the San Diego State Aztecs head up north to Idaho to battle it out with the Boise State Broncos in what should be an entertaining conference matchup! It is time to check out our college football odds series, where our San Diego State-Boise State predictions and odds will come true.

After wrapping up their non-conference slate a week ago with a gritty 17-14 at home versus the Toledo Rockets, the Aztecs enter their conference schedule with what should be a challenging road contest in Boise. Regardless, SDSU will plan on implementing a heavy dosage of a running attack that has been tough to stop at this point. Without question, the Aztecs would want nothing more to down a Broncos program that has been near the top half of the conference over the past few seasons and start off 1-0 in Mountain West play.

Sitting at 2-2, Boise State has had a rockier start to the season than they are usually used to after completing their 2021 campaign by going 7-5. Despite the so-so start, the Broncos were able to hit their stride late in the year last November when they were victorious in four of their last five contests. Unfortunately, four days after the loss to UTEP, QB Hank Bachmeier announced that he would be putting his name in the transfer portal, so it will be up to dual-threat field general Taylen Green to move the ball effectively on offense.

Here are the San Diego State-Boise State college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: San Diego State-Boise State Odds

San Diego State: +6.5 (-114)

Boise State: -6.5 (-106)

Over: 38.5 (-115)

Under: 38.5 (-105)

Why San Diego State Could Cover The Spread

Similarly to Boise State, the Aztecs have often times scuffled on offense but have certainly looked the part on the defensive side of the ball. At first glance in the victory at home against Toledo a week ago, the Aztecs put the clamps on the Rockets and were able to force a whopping four turnovers that ultimately proved to be a difference-maker on the scoreboard. Not to mention, San Diego State was edged out 24-14 in first downs as well, so the resilience from the defense to stand strong and get the job done was surely impressive.

With the same DNA as Boise State on defense, the Aztecs remarkably are a team on offense that puts an emphasis on the running game which can set up the play-action pass when the linebackers start to creep in to stop the run. In fact, SDSU possesses one of the more dangerous rushing attacks in the entire country as they have averaged a whopping 220 yards per game.

As successful as they have been running between the tackles, it is vital for the Aztecs to prove that they have some sort of heartbeat in the passing game. On paper, San Diego State has passed for only 73 yards per game up to this point and in facing a mean Broncos defense, QB Braxton Burmeister needs to make some plays with his arm if SDSU wants to cover the spread.

Why Boise State Could Cover The Spread

Without a doubt, the defeat down in El Paso against the Miners was a disturbing one, to say the least. When the clock finally hit triple zeroes in the 27-10 loss, Boise State only mustered up a measly 177 yards of total offense while also getting absolutely dominated in the Time of Possession department 40:35-19:35. Clearly, the Broncos cannot afford to be lackluster on the offensive side of the ball if they want to improve to 3-2 on the young season.

With the departure of Bachmeier, the success on offense will fall on the shoulders of Taylen Green. If anything, Boise State may be better off with the athletic Green under center because of his ability to be a major threat with his legs. While he did not see any action last weekend, Green has completed 68% of his passes for 155 passing yards and averaging 9.1 YPC on the ground when he decides to tuck it and run. The best case scenario for Boise State when it comes to covering Friday night’s spread, as well as the rest of the season, will be for Green to prove that he was actually the Broncos’ best quarterback on the roster even before Bachmeier decided to transfer.

Additionally, the stingy Broncos defense has made life hard for opposing offenses and is only surrendering 270 yards of total offense through four games. The Aztecs have appeared to look rather stagnant thus far this year, so expect the Broncos to rely heavily on the defense to create some turnovers and make some big plays.

Final San Diego State-Boise State Prediction & Pick

With Taylen Green in line to start for the Broncos, don’t be surprised if he makes a name for himself under the Friday night lights. SDSU’s defense is no joke, but so is Boise State’s. The home fans within Albertsons Stadium will also be rocking with the game on national TV, and they will be a big reason why Boise State pulls this one out.

Final San Diego State-Boise State Prediction & Pick: Boise State -6.5 (-106)